I know there are many on the left who will see this as a positive and a win while ignoring the consequences if this occurs. Without this agreement there is no way US Troops can remain in Iraq legally yet to remove US Troops is a death sentence to Iraqi’s of an unknown quantity.

Iraqi officials were informed last week what will happen without SOFA on Jan. 1, 2009:

* Intelligence sharing between the US and Iraqi government will cease.
* Air traffic control, air defense, SWAT team training or advisers in government ministries will cease.
* Disposition of US held Iraqi convicts will cease.
* US training for Iraq’s Security Forces and it’s burgeoning Navy and Air Force will cease.
* US Patrolling of Iraq’s borders and waterways will cease.
* US refurbishing of 8,500 Humvees for Iraq’s Security Forces will cease.
* US employment of 200,000 Iraqi’s will cease.
* US Troops will be pulled back to their bases to begin withdrawal from the country.
* US aid for construction will cease.

In a 3 page list shown to McClatchy on Monday:

snip…..
The warning was spelled out in a three-page list that was shown to McClatchy on Monday. Iraqi officials consider the threat serious and worry that the impasse over the so-called status of forces agreement could lead to a crisis in Iraq. Without a new agreement or a renewed United Nations mandate, the U.S. military presence would become an illegal occupation under international law.

snip….
Without coalition forces, Iraq would virtually shut down.

The U.S. military controls the Iraqi intelligence services and Iraqi airspace, and Iraqi officials often use American military aircraft to travel safely. The Iraqi government is unable to monitor air traffic over the country, so commercial airplanes flying over Iraq would have to be rerouted and flights to and from the country would be grounded.

The Iraqi government is examining contingency plans. Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki wants an extension of the U.N. security mandate, but with changes that would allow Iraq to prosecute private contractors in Iraq. The U.S. would veto any changes to the mandate, however, which provides immunity from prosecution for American troops and contractors.

snip…..
The amendments were supposed to be presented to Cabinet members Sunday, but on Monday the Shiite alliance still hadn’t finalized its changes. It’s been insisting that Iraq have the right to search American cargo, mail and military bases, which the U.S. would never accept. The alliance also wants to delete a provision that gives the Iraqi government the right to extend the security agreement beyond 2011.

Captain’s Journal discussed Prosecution of U.S. Troops under Iraq SOFA last week, this provision looks to be problematic for any type of contractor in Iraq. There’s a cultural divide between the West and the Middle East:

Are lies being told to obtain blood money payments? Some insight comes in this response to the collapse of the British trial by Stephan Holland, a Baghdad-based US contractor.

I’ve been in Iraq for about 18 months now performing construction management. It is simply not possible for me to exaggerate the massive amounts of lies we wade through every single day. There is no way – absolutely none – to determine facts from bulls*** ….

It is not even considered lying to them; it is more akin to being clever – like keeping your cards close to your chest. And they don’t just lie to westerners. They believe that appearances–saving face–are of paramount importance. They lie to each other all the time about anything in order to leverage others on a deal or manipulate an outcome of some sort or cover up some major or minor embarrassment. It’s just how they do things, period.

I’m not trying to disparage them here. I get along great with a lot of them. But even among those that I like, if something happens (on the job) I’ll get 50 wildly different stories, every time. There’s no comparison to it in any other part of the world where I’ve worked. The lying is ubiquitous and constant.

Captain’s Journal assessment of this situation:

Too much has been given away in our lust to seal a SOFA, and it isn’t worth it. Most sensible people would now oppose their sons being deployed to Iraq under these rules. Even people who support the campaign must now object to further deployment of troops under these circumstances. The Captain’s Journal supports the troops before we support Operation Iraqi Freedom.

I can’t say I disagree with him.

Iraq, SOFA, Status of Forces Agreement, US Military, Gen Ray Odierno, Iran, Shiites