I’ve always heard that the Arab Palestinian population would quickly overtake the Jews in Israel. The previous demographics were produced (and I mean produced) by the Palestinian Authority. Turns out to be false! Big surprise, Yasser and his chums from the Palestinian Authority were fudging the numbers. How, you say?

1. Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
2. Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90’s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
3. Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the West BAnk and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.
4. Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel’s population survey were included in the PA survey.
5. Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
6. Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.

Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.

The PA’s Central Election Commission press release of October 14 2004 acknowledged that the number of eligible voters living in the West Bank and Gaza was only 1.3 million.

The resident population in January 2004 was 2.4 million: 1.35 million in the West Bank and 1.07 million in Gaza in January 2004.

The Palestinian Authority reported 3.8 million in 2004, just a slight (ahem) difference.

PA Demographics - Introduction

There’s additional information from the presentation at the 6th Herzliya Conference January 23, 2006.